Typical Secular Bear Market and Its Aftermath

Thursday, October 08, 2009

Hat tip The Big Picture

The following chart is a composite of the last 19 major global bear markets. Based on historical patterns, the market is likely to pull-in and then trade within a wide range for over 5 years. This seems quite likely as the US deleverages and GDP growth slows to a marginal rate.

The Aftermath of Secular Bear Markets
Authors: Teun Draaisma, Ronan Carr, CFA & Graham Secker, Edmund Ng, CFA and Matthew Garman
Morgan Stanley European Strategy 10 August 2009


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