How Fast Can Markets Rally?

Thursday, April 30, 2009

Markets are rallying farther and faster off lows than most have predicted, yet, there is a historical precedent of this to study. The 1973-74 recession looks to be a reasonable comparison period for the current 2007-09 recession. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a correction of 46.6% and once a bottom was in stocks rallied back to highs within 14 months. The current recession has seen a 54.4% correction in the Dow and the March 9th bottom looks to be the possible ultimate bottom. An equivalent rally in stocks will put the Dow back to highs by May of 2010.


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